Prediction - Sports

Sports

Predicting the outcome of sporting events is a business which has grown in popularity in recent years. Handicappers predict the outcome of games using a variety of mathematical formulas, simulation models or qualitative analysis. Early, well known sports bettors, such as Jimmy the Greek, were believed to have access to information that gave them an edge. Information ranged from personal issues, such as gambling or drinking to undisclosed injuries; anything that may affect the performance of a player on the field.

Recent times have changed the way sports are predicted. Predictions now typically consist of two distinct approaches: Situational plays and statistical based models. Situational plays are much more difficult to measure because they usually involve the motivation of a team. Dan Gordon, noted handicapper, wrote “Without an emotional edge in a game in addition to value in a line, I won’t put my money on it”. These types of plays consist of: Betting on the home underdog, betting against Monday Night winners if they are a favorite next week, betting the underdog in “look ahead” games etc. As situational plays become more widely known they become less useful because they will impact the way the line is set.

The widespread use of technology has brought with it more modern sports betting systems. These systems are typically algorithms and simulation models based on regression analysis. Jeff Sagarin, a sports statistician, has brought attention to sports by having the results of his models published in USA Today. He is currently paid as a consultant by the Dallas Mavericks for his advice on lineups and the use of his Winval system, which evaluates free agents. Brian Burke, a former Navy fighter pilot turned sports statistician, has published his results of using regression analysis to predict the outcome of NFL games. Ken Pomeroy is widely accepted as a leading authority on college basketball statistics. His website includes his College Basketball Ratings, a tempo based statistics system. Some statisticians have become very famous for having successful prediction systems. Dare wrote “the effective odds for sports betting and horse racing are a direct result of human decisions and can therefore potentially exhibit consistent error”. Unlike other games offered in a casino, prediction in sporting events can be both logical and consistent.